New Business Applications in 2026 Near Record Highs, but Payroll Signals Tell a Different Story
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Americans are filing business applications at near-record levels, but the latest Census data shows the boom isn’t matched by the same growth in payroll-related signals.
In August, 531,728 business applications were filed, the fifth-highest monthly total since the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the series in 2004. Yet just 34,263 applications reported a planned first date for paying wages. That was fewer than in August 2019, even though total applications were 82% higher.
That contrast is at the center of what MyPerfectResume calls the “hiring-signal gap.” Business applications have surged, while several indicators associated with future payroll employment have grown much more slowly or declined.
Key Findings
- Near-record application volume reached. Business application stats showed Americans filed 531,728 business applications in August, the fifth-highest monthly total on record. July set the record with 576,512.
- Planned-wage filings didn’t keep pace. Just 34,263 August applications reported a planned first date for paying wages, down from 40,261 in August 2019, even though total applications were 82% higher.
- High-propensity applications also lost ground. They accounted for 27.3% of August applications, down from 38.0% in 2019. Corporate applications accounted for 7.7%, the lowest share in the 266-month series.
- The decline happened within industries. In 17 of 20 industries, the high-propensity share was lower than in 2019. About 92% of the long-term national decline came from changes within industries rather than from changes in the industry mix.
- The pattern was widespread across states. In 40 of 51 jurisdictions, high-propensity applications grew more slowly than total applications. In 15 states, they declined from the previous year.
The Clearest Gap Is in Planned Wages
Planned wages stats provide the clearest direct payroll signal in the application data. In August 2026, 34,263 applications reported a planned first wage payment date, compared with 40,261 in August 2019. Their share of all applications fell from 13.8% to 6.4% even as total applications rose 82%.
| August | All Applications | High-Propensity Applications | High-Propensity Share | Planned-Wage Applications | Planned-Wage Share | Corporate Applications | Corporate Share |
| 2019 | 292,063 | 110,912 | 38.0% | 40,261 | 13.8% | 42,938 | 14.7% |
| 2025 | 477,409 | 142,648 | 29.9% | 40,097 | 8.4% | 43,139 | 9.0% |
| 2026 | 531,728 | 145,387 | 27.3% | 34,263 | 6.4% | 41,075 | 7.7% |
Other Census measures point in the same direction. The high-propensity share fell from 38.0% in August 2019 to 27.3% in August 2026, a 10.6-point decline. Corporate applications fell from 14.7% to 7.7% of all applications, the lowest share in the 266-month series.
One Census measure moves in the other direction. The agency projects that 28,501 August applications will become employer businesses within one year, up 9.8% from a year earlier. That projection is a separate model-based measure that uses additional information and can be revised.
These data shouldn’t be read as evidence that fewer employer businesses will necessarily be created; rather, overall applications have grown faster than several application characteristics associated with future payroll employment.
The Decline Is Happening Inside Industries
The national decline isn’t mainly the result of applications shifting toward industries that historically produce fewer employer businesses. High-propensity shares fell within most industries themselves.
A shift-share analysis shows that about 92% of the 10.6-point decline in the national high-propensity share since 2019 came from lower high-propensity shares within industries.
Changes in the industry mix explained about 6% of the decline. Over the last year, within-industry changes accounted for 79% of the decline.
| Industry | Aug. 2019 High-Propensity Share | Aug. 2026 High-Propensity Share | Change |
| Transportation & warehousing | 29.3% | 15.1% | –14.2 pts |
| Information | 26.2% | 12.2% | –14.0 pts |
| Retail trade | 33.2% | 19.6% | –13.6 pts |
| Manufacturing | 44.1% | 31.4% | –12.7 pts |
| Professional services | 32.8% | 20.7% | –12.2 pts |
| Administrative & support | 24.7% | 12.7% | –12.0 pts |
| Other services | 22.6% | 11.6% | –11.0 pts |
| Real estate | 18.9% | 9.0% | –9.8 pts |
| Construction | 57.1% | 48.9% | –8.2 pts |
| Healthcare | 70.4% | 65.6% | –4.7 pts |
The pattern reaches very different parts of the economy. Retail, transportation, information, manufacturing, professional services, construction, and healthcare all had lower high-propensity shares than in 2019. In all, 17 of 20 industries were lower than in 2019, and 15 were lower than in August 2025.
August Stayed Near Record Highs After July’s Peak
July set the monthly record with 576,512 applications. August fell 7.8% to 531,728, but activity remained historically high: the June-through-August average was 547,231 applications per month, compared with 469,263 in the same three months of 2025 and 287,713 in 2019.
From January through August, Americans filed 4.19 million applications, up 16.7% from the same period in 2025 and 80.8% from 2019.
The State Story Is Broad, but Not Uniform
Business application growth reached most states: 45 of 50 states had more filings than a year earlier, and the median state grew 12.4%.
Alaska led at +67.8%, followed by Maine, Vermont, West Virginia, and Mississippi. Five states declined: Nebraska, Delaware, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Hawaii.
The divergence between total applications and high-propensity applications was even more widespread. In 40 of 51 jurisdictions (50 states plus D.C.), high-propensity applications grew more slowly than total applications. High-propensity applications declined in 15 states.
| State | Total Application Growth | High-Propensity Application Growth | Gap: Total Growth Minus High-Propensity Growth |
| Alaska | +67.8% | +10.5% | 57.3 pts |
| West Virginia | +31.7% | –4.0% | 35.7 pts |
| Mississippi | +31.1% | –2.3% | 33.4 pts |
| Colorado | +30.6% | +0.1% | 30.5 pts |
| North Carolina | -2.6% | +10.5% | –13.1 pts |
| Montana | +11.0% | +26.9% | –15.9 pts |
| New Mexico | +11.2% | +23.8% | –12.6 pts |
| Wisconsin | +0.5% | +10.3% | –9.8 pts |
The pattern wasn’t universal. North Carolina had fewer total applications than a year ago, yet its high-propensity applications rose 10.5%. Montana, New Mexico, and Wisconsin also saw high-propensity applications grow faster than total filings.
Large states still drive much of the national total: Florida, California, and Texas accounted for 31.2% of August applications. Small states can post large percentage changes from smaller moves, and Delaware, Nevada, and Wyoming also attract registrations from owners who may live elsewhere.
Full 50-State Business Application Ranking
The table below ranks all 50 states by year-over-year growth in business applications. D.C. is listed separately.
| Rank | State | Aug. 2026 | YoY Change | Vs 2019 | High-Propensity Share | High-Propensity Application Growth |
| 1 | Alaska | 1,413 | +67.8% | +127.9% | 18.7% | +10.5% |
| 2 | Maine | 1,538 | +39.6% | +99.2% | 31.6% | +23.0% |
| 3 | Vermont | 783 | +35.5% | +90.5% | 30.0% | +18.7% |
| 4 | West Virginia | 1,734 | +31.7% | +104.2% | 26.4% | –4.0% |
| 5 | Mississippi | 5,561 | +31.1% | +114.1% | 21.2% | –2.3% |
| 6 | Colorado | 15,602 | +30.6% | +121.7% | 22.3% | +0.1% |
| 7 | Idaho | 3,431 | +29.6% | +87.0% | 27.2% | +14.0% |
| 8 | Kentucky | 6,751 | +28.7% | +154.1% | 21.3% | +0.3% |
| 9 | Minnesota | 8,078 | +26.7% | +110.0% | 21.3% | –3.1% |
| 10 | California | 55,619 | +26.0% | +83.8% | 31.7% | –0.1% |
| 11 | New Hampshire | 1,797 | +23.3% | +111.9% | 27.7% | +10.7% |
| 12 | Utah | 7,682 | +22.0% | +77.7% | 22.9% | +4.8% |
| 13 | North Dakota | 906 | +21.8% | +72.9% | 29.9% | +12.9% |
| 14 | Kansas | 3,941 | +20.7% | +114.0% | 25.2% | +10.4% |
| 15 | New Jersey | 15,873 | +20.7% | +69.2% | 26.1% | +9.3% |
| 16 | Connecticut | 4,916 | +19.1% | +79.2% | 26.7% | +10.4% |
| 17 | South Dakota | 1,270 | +19.0% | +103.9% | 28.3% | +20.9% |
| 18 | Missouri | 11,239 | +18.8% | +102.1% | 20.8% | +4.6% |
| 19 | Arizona | 12,399 | +16.6% | +96.8% | 27.0% | +4.9% |
| 20 | Arkansas | 3,813 | +15.5% | +82.1% | 27.6% | +3.1% |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 5,318 | +15.4% | +54.7% | 28.3% | +8.9% |
| 22 | Louisiana | 6,793 | +14.8% | +50.0% | 25.6% | +8.4% |
| 23 | Indiana | 8,363 | +13.2% | +85.8% | 27.8% | +7.4% |
| 24 | Alabama | 6,206 | +12.5% | +91.8% | 26.0% | +9.2% |
| 25 | Michigan | 14,883 | +12.5% | +90.0% | 24.3% | +6.5% |
| 26 | Ohio | 14,822 | +12.2% | +86.4% | 25.4% | +5.7% |
| 27 | Rhode Island | 1,114 | +11.3% | +86.0% | 28.1% | –12.6% |
| 28 | Georgia | 23,383 | +11.2% | +61.9% | 24.4% | –2.7% |
| 29 | New Mexico | 3,901 | +11.2% | +179.0% | 27.1% | +23.8% |
| 30 | Montana | 2,897 | +11.0% | +155.9% | 27.2% | +26.9% |
| 31 | Oregon | 5,500 | +10.5% | +75.7% | 27.6% | +5.7% |
| 32 | Washington | 9,874 | +9.5% | +65.7% | 26.5% | –6.7% |
| 33 | Illinois | 16,559 | +7.7% | +69.7% | 30.4% | +8.6% |
| 34 | Texas | 48,692 | +7.6% | +87.9% | 26.8% | +2.8% |
| 35 | Iowa | 3,337 | +7.3% | +87.2% | 25.7% | +5.1% |
| 36 | Massachusetts | 7,596 | +6.6% | +59.7% | 31.5% | –2.0% |
| 37 | Florida | 61,380 | +5.9% | +76.0% | 27.1% | –5.0% |
| 38 | Virginia | 13,103 | +5.4% | +86.1% | 25.1% | +4.1% |
| 39 | Nevada | 5,757 | +5.1% | +97.4% | 25.7% | +3.1% |
| 40 | Wyoming | 7,171 | +5.0% | +348.7% | 22.7% | -7.4% |
| 41 | Pennsylvania | 14,285 | +4.8% | +67.9% | 28.1% | +4.8% |
| 42 | New York | 26,762 | +4.6% | +41.8% | 36.1% | –1.1% |
| 43 | Maryland | 8,922 | +2.6% | +46.0% | 27.7% | –1.3% |
| 44 | Tennessee | 9,613 | +2.0% | +102.4% | 27.8% | +2.2% |
| 45 | Wisconsin | 6,380 | +0.5% | +71.0% | 27.7% | +10.3% |
| 46 | Nebraska | 1,995 | –2.2% | +62.3% | 29.4% | +6.5% |
| 47 | Delaware | 4,985 | –2.3% | +150.4% | 35.1% | –4.9% |
| 48 | North Carolina | 16,692 | –2.6% | +95.3% | 28.3% | +10.5% |
| 49 | South Carolina | 8,406 | –7.4% | +95.9% | 25.3% | –2.9% |
| 50 | Hawaii | 1,450 | –10.1% | +29.3% | 28.2% | –14.3% |
High-propensity share is the percent of a state’s applications that Census classifies as having a relatively high likelihood of becoming an employer business. D.C. had 1,243 applications, down 2.2% from a year earlier; its high-propensity applications rose 2.2%.
What This Means for Workers
The data can’t show why any individual applied for an EIN. Applications may come from freelancers formalizing work, people starting side businesses, online sellers, or owners planning to operate without employees.
The data show that today’s surge differs from the pre-pandemic period. Total applications were 82% higher in August 2026 than in August 2019, but fewer applications reported a first date for new business planning to pay wages, and fewer were classified as high propensity.
The bigger picture is simple: business applications are near record highs, but indicators associated with future payroll employment haven’t kept pace. For workers, the distinction matters—a record or near-record number of business applications shouldn’t automatically be read as an equivalent increase in potential employers or future job opportunities.
For press inquiries, please contact Nathan Barber at nathan.barber@bold.com.
Methodology
This analysis uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics for August 2026, released September 11, 2026. Business applications are Employer Identification Number applications filed with the IRS on Form SS-4, excluding certain filing types.
High-propensity business applications are filings Census classifies as having a relatively high likelihood of becoming employer businesses based on application characteristics. Business Applications with Planned Wages report a planned first date for paying wages. Corporate applications come from corporations or personal service corporations. These measures overlap and shouldn’t be added together.
The industry analysis compares each sector’s high-propensity share over time. The shift-share analysis separates the national change into industry-mix effects, within-industry changes, and their interaction. Because industry is one factor Census uses in its high-propensity classification, these comparisons describe changes in Census’s classification, not stated hiring intent.
Projected formations are model estimates of how many applications will become employer businesses. They use additional information, can be revised, and don’t match the application characteristics analyzed here.
Unless noted otherwise, figures are seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year comparisons use August 2025, pre-pandemic comparisons use August 2019, and month-to-month comparisons use July 2026. D.C. is shown separately from the 50-state ranking, and Puerto Rico is excluded.
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Hiring Signal Gap
Jasmine is a certified career coach and recognized expert in job search strategy. She is committed to helping job seekers navigate the job market and succeed in their careers.
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